Open enrollment for 2027 marketplace coverage opens Nov. 1. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, in a blog post published Oct. 27, 2026, told shoppers what they are walking into: coverage bought during this year's window, which CBPP puts at November 1 through January 15 in most states, will likely cost more than last year's, because the premium tax credit enhancements have expired and the 2025 reconciliation law changed marketplace policy.

The people who feel that first are the ones who buy their own coverage. CBPP counts more than 19 million people on the ACA marketplaces, a group it says takes in small business employees, entrepreneurs, and part-time and seasonal workers, among others. In a November 2025 report, CBPP used a Treasury Department estimate that self-employed workers and small business owners account for about one in four enrollees to put their number above 5 million.

If you shop for yourself this window, four things decide how it goes: the enrollment dates, the premium math, an income estimate you can defend, and cash set aside for a deductible you may actually use. Novo does not provide tax, legal, or financial advice, so treat the tax sections here as background for a conversation with your CPA.

When does ACA open enrollment start, and what changed since last year?

For 2027 coverage, ACA open enrollment runs from Nov. 1, 2026, through Jan. 15, 2027, in most states, the window CBPP gives in its Oct. 27, 2026 post. The date that matters most comes earlier. In most states, including all states that use HealthCare.gov, Dec. 15 is the deadline to pick a plan with a Jan. 1 effective date, according to healthinsurance.org:

• Nov. 1, 2026: Open enrollment for 2027 coverage begins.
• Dec. 15, 2026: Deadline in most states to pick a plan that starts Jan. 1.
• Jan. 1, 2027: Coverage begins for plans picked by the Dec. 15 deadline and first premium paid.
• Jan. 15, 2027: Open enrollment ends in most states.

State-run marketplaces set their own calendars, so confirm these dates on HealthCare.gov or your state marketplace before you plan around them. HealthCare.gov's help line is 1-800-318-2596.

One state is changing addresses this year. HealthCare.gov's state page carries this notice:

HealthCare.gov also tells Oregon residents to keep using HealthCare.gov for 2026 coverage information.

What drives cost this cycle is different from last cycle. CBPP points out that the underlying premium tax credit formula is not changing this year, unlike last year, when the enhancements expired. The pressure now comes from what the plans themselves cost, on top of a subsidy system that got less generous at the end of 2025.

People have already left. CBPP reports marketplace participation down about 13 percent between February 2025 and February 2026, a loss of close to 3 million enrollees, with a handful of states shedding nearly a third of theirs.

Eligibility is narrowing too. CBPP says that as of Jan. 1, 2027, many lawfully present immigrants can no longer receive premium tax credits, including refugees, people granted asylum, and people granted humanitarian parole. Credits stay available to U.S. citizens and nationals, green card holders, Cuban-Haitian entrants, and COFA migrants. CBPP puts the projected result at 900,000 more uninsured people by 2034. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' plan-year 2027 guidance ties the change to section 71301 of P.L. 119-21, a law Congress enacted in 2025, and says CMS updated its regulations to match in the Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters for 2027, which was finalized in May 2026. If someone in your household falls outside that narrower group, talk to an enrollment assister or an immigration attorney rather than guessing.

How much are ACA premiums increasing for 2027?

The first nationwide figure for 2027 was a proposal. The Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, in a brief updated Aug. 3, 2026, reported a median proposed 2027 premium increase of 15% across 276 ACA Marketplace insurers, and treated those filings as preliminary. That brief covered insurers in every state and the District of Columbia whose filings were public. Final rates have come in since. Healthinsurance.org reported in an Oct. 19, 2026 update that rates had been finalized in about two-thirds of states as of mid-October, and that with final rates for about half of the states included, the weighted average increase was also about 15%. The number that governs your budget is still the one on your own renewal notice.

A few more figures from that analysis are worth keeping in view. The authors report that insurers proposed a median increase of 18% a year earlier and that regulators approved a median of 20%, so last cycle's final rates landed above the proposals. Proposed 2027 changes ran from a 1% decrease to a 54% increase, and 63% of them fell between 10% and 25%. Fifty-one insurers asked for more than 25%. One asked for a decrease. If the 2027 medians hold, the analysts write, typical premiums for insurers participating in the ACA Marketplaces will have jumped by more than one-third over two years. That is the sticker price, before subsidies. Most enrollees get a subsidy that absorbs part of an increase, as the subsidy section below explains.

Two forces push the rates. In a subset of filings from 77 insurers in 16 states and the District of Columbia, Peterson-KFF puts the median increase insurers assumed for the cost of medical care and prescription drugs at 10% for 2027, above the roughly 8% of recent years. The insurers in that subset also blame two things specific to the individual market: the end of the enhanced premium tax credits in December 2025, and the sicker risk pool that followed it.

The brief's worked example shows the two-year stack for one kind of enrollee: people with incomes just above four times the federal poverty level, who became ineligible for subsidies when the enhanced credits expired. It follows a 40-year-old in Indianapolis earning $65,000 a year, enrolled in Anthem Heart Healthy Silver Essential 4500: a $316 monthly premium payment in 2025 with enhanced premium tax credits (the unsubsidized premium would have been $388), $477 in 2026 after those credits expired and premiums rose, and $546 a month in 2027 if the filed rates were approved. Peterson-KFF calls that a cumulative increase of $158, or 41%, a figure that works out from the $388 unsubsidized 2025 premium. Measured from the $316 this person actually paid in 2025, the monthly payment rises $230. If you still qualify for a subsidy, your numbers will look different.

The math that matters for you has two parts: the change in the plan's sticker premium, plus any change in your subsidy. Run both. A plan whose list price rose 12% can still cost you more per month than one that rose 20%, depending on what happens to the benchmark plan your credit is calculated from.

Actuarial consultancy Wakely, in an analysis released April 15, 2026, found that the 2026 cycle's sticker shock showed up in whether people actually paid:

Wakely projects the drop-off goes well beyond what plan-selection counts suggested:

The firm built that analysis on data from more than 75 carriers across over 30 markets.

Who qualifies for ACA subsidies as a self-employed worker?

Most people who buy their own coverage get help with the premium. Peterson-KFF reports that 87% of people who signed up for a 2026 ACA Marketplace plan receive a premium subsidy, which cushions part of a rate increase depending on the plan they pick.

Premium tax credits go to people buying marketplace coverage who are not offered affordable coverage through a job, and most sole proprietors and freelancers are in that position. Three questions trip owners up: whether forming an LLC changes anything, how the rules work for an S-corp owner paying themselves W-2 wages, and whether a spouse's offer of employer coverage affects the household. Your marketplace makes the affordability determination, and the answer turns on facts specific to you, so run your situation past an enrollment assister or a CPA before you file the application.

The old eligibility ceiling is back. CBPP's earlier report explains that the enhancements had extended credits above 400 percent of poverty, roughly $63,000 for an individual under the 2025 poverty guidelines used for 2026 coverage, when benchmark premiums would have exceeded 8.5 percent of household income. Coverage for 2027 uses the 2026 poverty guidelines, which put 400 percent of poverty at $63,840 for a single person in the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia. CBPP projected what expiration would mean for 2026 coverage. A single person earning $32,000, at 204 percent of poverty and well below the cliff, was projected to pay $1,468 more over the year, with monthly premiums rising from $58 to $180. The cliff itself showed in a 60-year-old couple at $85,000, projected to face roughly $24,500 more a year, with monthly premiums rising from $602 to $2,647.

Subsidies are provisional either way. You estimate your 2027 household income when you enroll, the marketplace advances a credit based on that estimate, and the credit is trued up when you file your federal return. The stakes of that true-up went up this year. Starting with the 2026 tax year, the 2025 reconciliation law eliminated the caps on repaying excess advance credits, so if your actual income comes in higher than your estimate, you owe back the full excess when you file, according to KFF and Health Reform: Beyond the Basics. Ask your tax preparer how an estimate that misses high or low would affect that return. For an owner whose income is a range rather than a number, that is the real risk, which is why the estimate deserves more than a guess.

How do I estimate income for ACA when my business revenue swings?

Marketplace eligibility runs on projected household modified adjusted gross income, not on a bank balance, so deposits are a starting point rather than the answer.

As a planning framework, a self-employed owner can start with the last 12 months of business deposits, remove non-revenue deposits, subtract potentially deductible business expenses, and aim at the middle of a plausible range rather than the low end. If your realistic range is $58,000 to $78,000, something near $68,000 is a steadier planning figure than the bottom of it. Then have a tax professional or an enrollment assister turn that figure into the household income the application asks for.

Two cautions on using deposits. Transfers between your own accounts, loan proceeds, and refunded charges are not revenue, so strip them out. Novo does not accept cash deposits; a cash-heavy business can instead deposit a money order or cashier's check with mobile check deposit (MoneyGram money orders aren't accepted for mobile deposit), transfer funds from another bank, or receive payouts from a payment processor. If you take cash over the counter, reconcile from your invoices or point-of-sale records.

If a big contract lands or falls through mid-year, report the change to your marketplace and ask how the update affects your advance credit and your reconciliation at tax time.

Keep 1099s, invoices, bank statements, and anything else that supports your number, and answer any documentation request your marketplace sends.

Novo business checking has no monthly fee or minimum balance requirement, though an account that ends the day at $0 for 130 consecutive days may be closed. Novo integrates with QuickBooks Online, Xero, and FreshBooks, which sync transactions automatically; QuickBooks has its own pricing plans.

You can use the cash-flow review below before you open the application. Copy the fields into your own spreadsheet rather than uploading your figures to an outside tool.

PRELIMINARY BUSINESS CASH-FLOW REVIEW
Coverage year: 2027            Household size: ______

A. GROSS BUSINESS DEPOSITS (last 12 months)
   Nov ______   Mar ______   Jul ______
   Dec ______   Apr ______   Aug ______
   Jan ______   May ______   Sep ______
   Feb ______   Jun ______   Oct ______
   A TOTAL ........................... $__________

B. SUBTRACT NON-REVENUE DEPOSITS
   Owner transfers in ................ $__________
   Loan or advance proceeds .......... $__________
   Refunds / reversed charges ........ $__________
   Other (describe) .................. $__________
   B TOTAL ........................... $__________

C. SUBTRACT POTENTIALLY DEDUCTIBLE EXPENSES
   Contractors and subcontractors .... $__________
   Materials, supplies, inventory .... $__________
   Vehicle, fuel, tools .............. $__________
   Software, phone, internet ......... $__________
   Rent, insurance, licenses ......... $__________
   Other (describe) .................. $__________
   C TOTAL ........................... $__________

D. NET BUSINESS INCOME  (A - B - C) ... $__________

E. OTHER HOUSEHOLD INCOME
   Income of a spouse or other tax-household
   member, if included under current
   marketplace rules ................. $__________
   W-2 wages you pay yourself ........ $__________
   Interest, dividends, rental ....... $__________
   Other (describe) .................. $__________
   E TOTAL ........................... $__________

F. LOW ESTIMATE   (D + E, slow year) .. $__________
G. HIGH ESTIMATE  (D + E, strong year)  $__________
H. PLANNING FIGURE  (midpoint F & G) .. $__________

Line H is a planning figure, not the household income the marketplace will ask you to certify. Take it to your tax preparer or an enrollment assister, who can translate it into the number the application wants.

Can I deduct ACA premiums as a self-employed business owner?

There is a self-employed health insurance deduction, and for many owners it is the largest tax item attached to this decision. The rules differ by entity type and by month, so confirm your own case against current IRS instructions for Schedule 1 or with a CPA.

Two questions to bring to that conversation: how much of the premium your net self-employment income supports, and whether you or your spouse were eligible for a subsidized employer plan in any month of the year. Each one can limit what you deduct.

The deduction and the premium tax credit also interact. The deduction lowers your adjusted gross income, which can change your credit, which changes your deductible premium. Use tax software that supports the IRS calculation for that situation, or ask a CPA to review it. Pay your premiums from one account all year so the year-end total is a single line in your books rather than a scavenger hunt across cards.

Bronze vs. silver: which plan makes sense if your subsidy shrank?

Cost-sharing reductions, which lower what you pay at the point of care, attach only to silver plans, and HealthCare.gov or your state marketplace decides who qualifies. If you qualify, silver is usually the stronger pick even when a bronze plan shows a lower monthly premium, because the gap in what you pay at the doctor's office can run into thousands of dollars.

If you do not qualify, the tradeoff is real: bronze costs less per month and asks more of you before coverage pays. Wakely's analysis found the 2026 market already moving that way:

Wakely also found gold enrollment rising in many states where silver is priced above gold, as lower-income members who qualify for cost-sharing silver plans bought down to save on premiums. Wakely actuary Michelle Anderson described the shift this way:

Before you pick a bronze plan, check what the deductible applies to. Some plans cover office visits or generic drugs before you meet it, and the plan documents say which. Those details decide whether a high deductible is survivable.

Be careful what you buy instead. In a secret shopper study published Aug. 13, 2026, researchers at Georgetown University's Center on Health Insurance Reforms (Amy Killelea, Madison Harden-Stein and JoAnn Volk) spoke with 20 sales representatives in May 2026, posing as one of two shoppers: a 30-year-old eligible for significant subsidies, and a 55-year-old with Type 2 diabetes whose income was just over the subsidy cutoff. All but three of the 20 representatives steered the shoppers toward products not regulated by the ACA, and the researchers found sales representatives misrepresenting non-comprehensive policies such as short-term and fixed-indemnity coverage. CHIR's summary links to the full report. CBPP notes that short-term limited-duration plans can turn down applicants with pre-existing conditions, charge them higher premiums, and restrict coverage of care related to those conditions.

What's the SHOP marketplace, and should a 2-person business use it?

SHOP, the Small Business Health Options Program, is the track for small employers that want to offer group coverage. It is separate from the individual marketplace where you shop for yourself.

The draw is the federal Small Business Health Care Tax Credit, which is tied to buying coverage through SHOP. Eligibility turns on your headcount and your average wages, and the IRS adjusts the wage figure, so read the current rules on IRS.gov and the SHOP pages on HealthCare.gov rather than budgeting from a number you read somewhere else.

A one- or two-person business with no employees other than the owners or their spouses can't use SHOP. HealthCare.gov says businesses with no employees other than owners or their spouses aren't eligible for SHOP plans, and that to qualify you generally need between 1 and 50 employees, with at least one who isn't an owner or spouse. CMS has said a sole proprietor with no common-law employees would be directed to enroll through the individual marketplace, and the IRS leaves owners and their family members out of the employee count for the Small Business Health Care Tax Credit. So a business with no employees shops the individual marketplace, and the self-employed deduction is the tax item to price. SHOP or a QSEHRA (Qualified Small Employer Health Reimbursement Arrangement) only becomes relevant once you have an employee who isn't an owner or spouse. At that point, ask a broker who works with small groups in your state, and have your CPA price the tax treatment of each.

How should a self-employed owner plan cash flow for ACA open enrollment?

Do not auto-renew without looking. Wakely found that states with higher premium increases and higher rates of automatic reenrollment tended to have lower premium payment rates. Review the renewed premium, and make the first payment by your insurer's deadline, because selecting or renewing a plan does not by itself confirm that the first premium was paid.

Size the deductible against a slow month. Pull your last three months of deposits. If the deductible is larger than one slow month of revenue, either buy down to a lower deductible or build the gap in savings before January.

Pre-fund premiums and the deductible separately. Novo Reserves is a budgeting feature within the Novo checking account, not a separate account, and you can create up to 20 Reserves. Set one up for monthly premiums and a second for the deductible, and fund both from revenue as it comes in, so a January ER visit does not drain the money earmarked for payroll and vendors.

Check the litigation picture if a rule affects you. CBPP says several of the administration's marketplace changes have been blocked by federal courts. State Health and Value Strategies published a tracker on July 24, 2026, written by Jason Levitis of the Urban Institute, that summarizes the litigation status of provisions in two rules: the Marketplace Integrity and Affordability rule and the Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters for 2027. The first of those, Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Marketplace Integrity and Affordability (CMS-9884-F), was published in the Federal Register on June 25, 2025:

Why going uninsured is the riskiest option for a business owner

A single hospital stay or surgery can cost far more than most owners keep in reserve, and an unpaid bill of that size follows you into collections. For an owner whose personal and business cash are closely tied, that is a business problem as well as a household one. Liability and collection rules vary by entity structure and by state, so ask a lawyer about your own situation rather than assuming the business is walled off.

That is the case for buying even a modest bronze plan. Check the plan's summary of benefits for its annual limit on in-network out-of-pocket costs, which is the figure that caps what covered care can cost you in a year. Premiums and care that is out of network or not covered sit outside that cap.

If premiums look impossible, complete the application anyway rather than skipping it. Let the marketplace tell you what you and your household qualify for, including any state program it refers you to, and ask a local enrollment assister to walk through the result with you.

If Congress or a court changes the rules mid-year, ask your marketplace whether you qualify for a special enrollment period rather than assuming you are locked in until next November.

Sources: This Open Enrollment Period, ACA Marketplace Enrollees Face Higher Premiums, More Eligibility Restrictions, cbpp.org, Oct. 27, 2026; The Marketplace in your state, healthcare.gov; How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 2027, healthsystemtracker.org; Wakely Analysis Signals Significant Enrollment Shifts in ACA Individual Market as 2026 Unfolds, wakely.com; Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; Marketplace Integrity and Affordability, federalregister.gov; What are the deadlines for the ACA's open enrollment period?, healthinsurance.org; Health insurance premium increases for 2027, healthinsurance.org, Oct. 19, 2026; Guidance on noncitizen eligibility for APTC and CSRs, plan year 2027, cms.gov; No Good Options: In the Wake of Marketplace Affordability Woes, Consumers Face Onslaught of Misleading Marketing of Limited Benefits Products, Amy Killelea, Madison Harden-Stein and JoAnn Volk, Georgetown University Center on Health Insurance Reforms, chir.georgetown.edu, Aug. 13, 2026 (full report); Self-employed, healthcare.gov; Litigation Status of Marketplace Rule Provisions, shvs.org, July 24, 2026; Health Insurance Premium Spikes Imminent as Tax Credit Enhancements Set to Expire, Gideon Lukens and Elizabeth Zhang, cbpp.org, updated Nov. 3, 2025; 8 Things to Watch for the 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period, kff.org, Oct. 28, 2025; Changes Coming to ACA Marketplace Policies #3, Health Reform: Beyond the Basics, healthreformbeyondthebasics.org, Jan. 12, 2026; Poverty Guidelines, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, aspe.hhs.gov; Small Business Health Options Program (SHOP) FAQ 90, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, hhs.gov, March 5, 2014; Small Business Health Care Tax Credit and the SHOP Marketplace, irs.gov.

Disclosures

Novo Platform Inc. ("Novo") is a fintech, not a bank. Banking services provided by Middlesex Federal Savings, F.A., Member FDIC. Eligibility subject to final Novo determination.

Novo Reserves is not a separate account. Novo Reserves is a budgeting feature within the Novo checking account. All funds within Reserves remain a part of the overall balance of the Novo checking account.

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